Ask the experts: What is stirring our clients (and moving the financial markets) in September 2025

We are always available to our customers for concerns and questions about their portfolios. As a representative of this, once a quarter we summarize the most frequently asked customer questions and the answers provided by our experts, thus giving you direct insights into our asset management and investment advisory services.

Equities

Should investments in Swiss stocks be avoided in the wake of the new 39% tariff hammer dropped on Switzerland?

Marco Inderwildi, Head of Equities: The United States slapped one of the highest punitive tariffs on Switzerland, applying a whopping 39% customs duty on Swiss exports. Only a handful of emerging-market countries like Cambodia (49%) and Vietnam (46%) can fret about even steeper tariff rates. A solution featuring a lean 10% tariff rate contrived beforehand between trade representatives from the USA and Switzerland was summarily rejected by Donald Trump. Switzerland’s roughly CHF 39 billion annual trade surplus with the USA translates into a 39% tariff rate – not mathematically, but by Donald Trump’s calculus. Although hopes of a renegotiation of the “deal” to the benefit of Switzerland admittedly exist, investors nonetheless should figure with the 39% scenario for the time being.

Little changed | The Swiss stock market has been unperturbed by the tariff cudgel thus far

Year-to-date performance of Swiss equity market, indexed

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

The USA is the most important trade partner for Switzerland’s high-exporting economy, ahead of the European Union. Preliminary estimates by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute project a 0.3 to 0.6-percentage-point reduction in Swiss economic output on the basis of the 39% tariff. The experts at the institute consider a recession in Switzerland unlikely, even in a worst-case scenario in which the 39% tariff also applies to pharmaceutical exports. Toughened by the chronically strong Swiss franc, Switzerland’s export economy has long been placing reliance on highly specialized products and efficient production out of necessity.

Resilient export sector | Switzerland’s export economy has remained successful despite chronic CHF appreciation

 US dollar and euro against Swiss franc over last 20 years

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

The new tariff situation is a manageable, albeit partly painful, obstacle for most publicly traded Swiss companies. This was reflected also by the comparatively tame reaction on the Swiss stock exchange. The Swiss equity market has actually even edged upward since the announcement of the tariffs. Numerous companies and analysts have already taken a stance on them. Many companies in the Swiss Performance Index (SPI) possess production capacity outside Switzerland and can flexibly adjust their supply chains. Large corporations like Nestlé, Novartis, and Roche have manufactured globally for decades, but even smaller Swiss companies are well set up internationally. One example is Comet Holding AG, which besides operating factories in Switzerland also produces in Germany, Denmark, the USA, China, and Malaysia. The semiconductor supplier thus is able to agilely circumvent the tariff burden.

Highly specialized products provide an additional firewall because they enable companies to pass tariff costs on to customers. One exemplar here is VAT Group, which controls around an 80% share of the market for vacuum valves (which are essential for the production of semiconductors and solar panels). US customers hardly have any negotiating leeway here to force price reductions. It’s more likely that the American semiconductor and solar panel manufacturers affected will exert pressure on the US government. Research conducted by Bloomberg has revealed that thanks to lobbying by US businesses during the 90-day suspension period, around one-third of US imports have remained exempted from tariffs – at a tariff level of 15%, mind you. At a tariff rate of 39%, the pressure on the government from those US companies affected by the levy is bound to further increase considerably.

Another trump in the game of trade poker with the USA is “Swissness.” Although Swatch Group will feel downward pressure on unit sales and profit margins for cheap brands like Swatch, the situation looks different for premium brands like Omega and Blancpain. American watch enthusiasts – Donald Trump included – swear by quality made in Switzerland. It’s hardly likely that an American Timex will soon be gleaming on the US president’s wrist in place of his beloved Rolex Day-Date.

In summary, it can be said that in light of the unclear tariff situation with the USA, portfolios of Swiss stocks should be especially diversified to spread out risk – a mix of globally producing giants, specialized exporters, and “Swissness” stars minimizes dependence on individual markets. Thanks to their international presence, their high degree of specialization, and their ability to pass on costs, those companies are likely to weather the tariff storm and stay robust in the long run.

Fixed income

Will the SNB soon reintroduce negative interest rates?

Irfan Ebibi, Head of Fixed Income: Banks, investors, and private households alike are concerned with the question of whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may reintroduce negative interest rates in the foreseeable future. In the wake of a series of interest-rate cuts, the SNB’s policy rate has stood at 0% since June 2025. Behind the scenes, individual banks are already paying negative interest of 0.25% on the part of their sight deposits at the SNB that exceed the set exemption threshold. Although there is a possibility, in principle, of the SNB lowering interest rates into negative territory, the prerequisites for doing so have been tightened significantly. In our baseline scenario, we are proceeding on the assumption that the SNB will not revert to negative interest rates in the quarters ahead.

The evolution of inflation is the pivotal factor for the SNB’s monetary policy strategy. Inflation in Switzerland has receded further since the start of 2025. However, as the chart below shows, the momentum of the retreat has diminished, a development that applies to inflation dynamics also in the Eurozone and the USA. The SNB anticipates an annual inflation rate of 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027 based on the current 0% policy rate level. If inflation lastingly declines, the national bank arguably would be compelled to use negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool again to defuse deflation risks and alleviate appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc.

No deflation in sight | High hurdles to negative interest rates

 Core inflation rates

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

The SNB has distinctly adjusted its monetary policy messaging lately. Whereas its governing board was still openly discussing negative interest rates as a possible option in late 2024 and early 2025, it now is communicating much more cautiously, saying that negative interest won’t be taken into consideration in the future unless there is a significant deterioration in economic conditions. It remains unclear whether the SNB has gained new confidence in a pickup in inflation or if trade policy pressure from the USA has influenced Swiss monetary policy – it’s possibly a combination of both. What is clear, though, is that the bar for reintroducing negative interest rates is much higher today than it used to be. One of the SNB’s stated justifications for its change in strategy is the side effects that SNB Vice President Antoine Martin recently highlighted: risks to savers, investors, the real estate market, and banks’ business models.

The international climate is also of vital importance to the SNB. The European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing its 2% inflation target and says that its monetary policy stance will follow a data-dependent approach going forward; the market does not expect to see drastic interest-rate cuts, which we consider realistic. The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) is contending with political influence, and “forced” rate-cutting has already been priced in. We believe that no further rate cuts beyond what has already been priced in will be necessary. Consequently, the Swiss franc is unlikely to appreciate unexpectedly sharply. We are also operating on the assumption that despite numerous uncertainties, the world economy will grow in a stable manner going forward, sustained by an AI-supported burst of innovation and investment as well as by already eased monetary and fiscal policies. Against this backdrop, global deflationary forces appear to be contained and are unlikely to exert any notable pressure on Swiss monetary policy.

This brings the question of how the SNB will conduct monetary policy going forward to center stage. The evolution of prices in Switzerland is determined by a number of different factors. The reference interest rate for housing rent prices was lowered again at the start of September, and producer prices continue to signal a downward tendency. At the same time, though, positive wage growth is buttressing personal consumption and counteracting potential deflation risks. Moreover, as explained above, no deflationary impetus looms from a global perspective.

In light of the raised bar for further interest-rate cutting, we expect that the SNB will not take any additional steps to ease monetary policy for the time being despite ongoing low inflation. However, residual risk must be kept in mind. The Swiss franc is in demand as a safe haven, particularly in times of waning trust in the US dollar. Unexpected shocks could put the SNB’s adaptability to the test. Nevertheless, the bar for reintroducing negative interest rates remains quite high.

Commodities

Is gold all that glitters, or are other precious metals also compelling?

Livio Derungs, Senior Portfolio Manager: Silver has captured the attention of investors at the moment and is benefiting from a combination of strong demand impetus and structural supply scarcity. Similar to the case with gold, political and geopolitical uncertainties – ranging from the conflict in the Middle East to trade policy tensions – are enhancing the attractiveness of silver as a safe haven. At the same time, though, silver has a decisive advantage versus its “big brother”: industrial applications account for around 60% of the total demand for the white metal. The solar and photovoltaic industry has particularly evolved into a growth engine in recent years. Its share of total industrial silver consumption has increased from less than 15% to almost 30% in a span of five years. Given the ambitious global buildout targets in the renewable energy sector, this trend looks set to continue in the years ahead and is bound to further boost demand for silver.

Silver is cheap in historical terms | Time for a comeback?

Gold-to-silver ratio

Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank

Silver looks attractive also from a relative valuation perspective. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently well above its historical average, which points to a potential comeback rally by the white metal. Historically, due to its high-beta nature, silver has often outgained gold during periods of rising precious metal prices. However, this leverage effect works in the opposite direction as well: during correction phases, silver frequently registers disproportionate drawdowns. This effect is amplified by the much smaller and less liquid market for silver compared to the one for gold, which additionally augments price movements.

This means that investors in silver should take higher volatility into account and must be prepared to ride out short-term price setbacks. Silver currently offers an exciting opportunity for portfolio diversification for long-term investors who wish to participate in the current precious metals cycle and are able to bear the somewhat higher risk compared to that entailed with gold.